Texas Senate Race Deadlocked as Paxton, Talarico Converge on Tarrant County

Key points

• Fox News poll finds Talarico and Paxton tied at 49% among likely voters, down from Talarico’s 51%-49% lead in September.
• Paxton has gained support among rural voters, suburban women, and Cornyn primary backers, while Talarico leads among Black, urban, and under-30 voters.
• Hispanic voters have swung back to Democrats, favoring Talarico by 30 points, reversing their 2024 support for Trump.
• Paxton’s favorability rating is negative (41% favorable, 58% unfavorable), while Talarico’s is slightly positive (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable).
• Both candidates held rallies in Tarrant County on the first day of early voting, signaling the county’s critical importance to the outcome.

Background

The Texas Senate race has been closely tracked since September, with multiple polls showing a statistical tie. Earlier coverage noted Talarico’s lead among independents and urban voters, while Paxton retained dominance in rural areas. The 2026 contest is notable as it could end a 32-year Republican streak in statewide Texas elections, with Hispanic voter support and economic concerns playing pivotal roles.

How outlets are covering it

Fox News emphasizes the race’s deadlock and Paxton’s consolidation of conservative support, while Mother Jones highlights Paxton’s scandal-plagued reputation and the campaign’s restrictive media policies. Houston Public Media focuses on Paxton’s economic messaging and voter enthusiasm in the Houston area, whereas The New York Times underscores the strategic convergence of both campaigns in Tarrant County as a decisive battleground. Outlets agree on the race’s tightness but differ in their emphasis on candidate favorability, demographic shifts, and local campaign dynamics.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate race is a bellwether for the 2026 midterms, with potential implications for national Senate control. A Democratic victory would end a 32-year Republican streak in statewide Texas elections, signaling a shift in the state’s political landscape. The race also reflects broader national trends, including Hispanic voter realignment and economic concerns, which could influence other competitive states.

What to watch

Early voting is underway in Texas, with both campaigns intensifying efforts in Tarrant County and other battleground areas. The outcome will likely hinge on turnout among disaffected Republicans and the ability of each candidate to mobilize their respective bases in the final weeks before Election Day.