South Carolina runoff tests Trump’s clout as Graham faces Norman
Darline Graham, a political novice appointed to fill her late brother Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat, faces Rep. Ralph Norman in an Aug. 25 special runoff. Despite President Trump’s heavy endorsement and financial support, Graham’s lack of experience and recent debate gaffe on national security have turned the race into a toss-up. Experts are divided on whether Trump’s influence or voter fatigue will decide the outcome, with low turnout expected in the third Republican primary in two months.
Key points
- Graham won 33% of the vote in the Aug. 11 primary, while Norman received 25%, forcing a runoff.
- Graham admitted during an Aug. 18 debate that national security is 'not my thing,' a misstep highlighted by her brother’s hawkish legacy.
- Trump held a rally in Myrtle Beach and spent over $827,000 via MAGA Inc. to support Graham.
- Polling is scarce, and experts describe the race as a toss-up due to Graham’s inexperience and Norman’s conservative base.
- Voter turnout is expected to be low, potentially between 11% and 15% of registered Republicans, due to fatigue from multiple primaries.
Background
Lindsey Graham died on July 11, 2026, after serving in the Senate since 2002. His sister, Darline Graham, was appointed by Gov. Henry McMaster at Trump’s request to serve out his term. The Aug. 11 special primary was the second Republican vote for the seat in two months, following Lindsey Graham’s June 9 primary win. The runoff winner will face Democrat Annie Andrews in November.
How outlets are covering it
USA Today and NBC News emphasize the race as a test of Trump’s influence, noting his near-perfect primary record but recent losses. Politico frames a Graham loss as a 'massive embarrassment' for Trump, while a win would showcase his ability to elevate unknowns. Experts like Kirk Randazzo and Danielle Vinson call it a toss-up, with Randazzo giving Norman a slight edge due to Graham’s debate gaffe. Kwadwo Poku-Agyemang argues Trump’s endorsement has not moved the needle, while Scott Huffmon suggests the outcome depends on whether 'disruptors' or 'MAGA true believers' turn out. Norman’s campaign highlights Graham’s inexperience, while Graham’s supporters cite her family legacy and Trump’s backing.
Why it matters
The runoff outcome will signal whether Trump’s endorsement remains decisive in primary races or if voter fatigue and candidate experience can override it. A Graham win would reinforce Trump’s clout and Lindsey Graham’s legacy, while a Norman win could mark a significant setback for the president’s preferred candidates in the 2026 cycle.
What to watch
The Aug. 25 runoff will determine the Republican nominee for the November general election against Democrat Annie Andrews. Low turnout and the lack of polling make the outcome unpredictable, but the result will shape perceptions of Trump’s influence in the 2026 midterms.
- Will Darline Graham turn her family name, Trump's support into SC win? USA Today
- Trump Lays It on the Line for Darline Graham Ahead of South Carolina Runoff The New York Times
- Trump’s endorsement faces major tests in Tuesday’s primary runoffs NBC News
- South Carolina could give Trump a revitalizing win — or his most embarrassing loss Politico
- Darline Graham’s Chances of Losing to Ralph Norman—Final Odds, Polls Newsweek
Want the full story? Read the original reporting
Read on USA Today