Tigray’s young men flee as renewed war and forced recruitment grip Ethiopia

Key points

• Al Jazeera reports young men in Tigray are leaving for Addis Ababa to avoid forced recruitment, with one man paying 20,000 birr to secure his release from a local administration office.
• Human Rights Watch documented forced recruitment of civilians and children as young as 15 since April, including abductions from streets, homes, and gold-mining areas.
• CNN reports Tigrayan forces seized three federal-controlled airports on Wednesday, with fighting spreading to Amhara and Afar regions after two months of smaller clashes.
• BBC confirms internet and call services via Ethio Telecom were cut in Tigray, with sources suggesting the TPLF ordered the blackout to disrupt government drones.
• The TPLF joined six other armed groups in a new alliance on Sunday to challenge Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, while the TPLF denies forced recruitment claims.

Background

The current crisis follows the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended a two-year war in Tigray estimated to have killed 600,000 people. Key issues such as contested territory, the return of displaced people, and disarmament of Tigrayan forces remained unresolved. Tensions escalated in 2025 after internal TPLF power struggles and the federal government’s failure to implement the agreement’s terms. The 2026 conflict mirrors earlier patterns of forced mobilization, including our August 2026 coverage of Russians fleeing mobilization fears, though the Tigray situation involves active combat and a formal rebel alliance.

How outlets are covering it

Al Jazeera emphasizes the human toll of forced recruitment, highlighting personal stories of young men fleeing to avoid conscription. CNN focuses on the military escalation, noting the TPLF’s new alliance with former enemies like the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army, while questioning the alliance’s durability. BBC highlights the humanitarian impact of the internet blackout, noting the region’s pre-existing cash scarcity and reliance on mobile banking. The TPLF disputes forced recruitment allegations, calling them a 'mistaken narrative,' while the federal government accuses the TPLF of launching an 'all-out offensive.' Analysts like Muauz Gidey Alemu argue the crisis stems from the Pretoria Agreement’s incomplete peace settlement, creating a cycle of insecurity and mobilization.

Why it matters

The renewed conflict threatens to reignite a war that killed 600,000 people and caused famine in Tigray. The TPLF’s new alliance with six armed groups could destabilize Ethiopia’s Amhara, Afar, and Oromia regions, while the internet and banking blackouts exacerbate a humanitarian crisis. The Pretoria Agreement’s failure to resolve territorial and disarmament issues has created a volatile environment where forced recruitment and military mobilization could spiral into a wider civil war, with potential spillover into Sudan and Eritrea.

What to watch

The African Union has urged de-escalation and requested help from former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who mediated the 2022 deal. The TPLF and federal government are likely to continue accusing each other of starting the conflict, while the new rebel alliance may face internal divisions over contested territory. Humanitarian aid and basic services in Tigray remain disrupted, and the risk of Eritrean military involvement looms as tensions over Red Sea access grow.