Iran War Heads Toward Negotiated Endgame, Not a Clear Victory

George Friedman argues the U.S.-Israel war on Iran is unlikely to end in a decisive victory or via a ground invasion; airpower alone won’t force surrender, and Iran can endure longer than Washington expects, making a negotiated settlement the most plausible path—potentially brokered by China in exchange for concessions—while the U.S. faces a weak bargaining position and domestic political pressure, and Tehran uses oil-price leverage to its advantage.