Ethiopia’s Army Claims Victory as TPLF Offensive Shatters 2022 Peace Deal

Key points

• Ethiopia’s army stated it inflicted heavy casualties and seized weapons from TPLF forces in Amhara, though the BBC could not independently verify these claims.
• The TPLF seized control of three airports, including in Mekelle, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to cancel all flights to the region.
• A new coalition, the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, was formed by the TPLF and six other armed groups to oust Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
• TPLF vice-president Amanuel Assefa declared the current situation as 'full-blown war,' while the government labeled the TPLF a 'Trojan horse' inciting conflict.
• Residents in Tigray report severe economic distress, with banks running out of cash and people relying on mobile banking amid fears of communication blackouts.

Background

This escalation follows months of rising tensions and mutual accusations of violating the 2022 Pretoria peace deal, which ended a devastating two-year war between 2020 and 2022. The conflict, which resulted in an estimated 500,000 to 600,000 deaths and famine-like conditions, had maintained an uneasy calm until late 2025. Recent developments include drone strikes in Tigray and the TPLF’s removal of a federal-aligned regional leader in May, replacing him with a council led by Debretsion Gebremichael.

How outlets are covering it

The Ethiopian government and its media portray the TPLF as a destabilizing 'Trojan horse' violating the peace agreement, while the TPLF claims it is defending against a federal 'invasion' involving drone and artillery strikes. Analysts note a significant shift from the 2020-2022 war, as the TPLF now has support from Eritrea and allies like the Fano movement, which previously fought against them. The US expressed disappointment in the TPLF’s 'unwinnable fight,' while the African Union and EU called for immediate de-escalation. The BBC reports that while Mekelle appears calm, fighting is intense in remote border areas, and the economic situation is dire due to cash shortages.

Why it matters

The resumption of hostilities threatens to reignite a civil war that previously caused mass famine and hundreds of thousands of deaths. The formation of a broad rebel alliance and potential Eritrean involvement suggest a more complex, multi-front conflict that could destabilize the Horn of Africa, impacting regional security and humanitarian conditions in an area already strained by war in Sudan and Red Sea tensions.

What to watch

The situation is likely to deteriorate as both sides deny responsibility for the initial attacks. Observers expect increased pressure on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed due to the new rebel coalition. Humanitarian conditions may worsen as cash shortages and potential communication blackouts mirror the siege conditions of the previous war. International actors, including the African Union and EU, are monitoring for de-escalation, but the formation of a unified rebel front suggests a prolonged conflict.