Hormuz Reopenings Stir Market Hope, But Glut Risks Loom

The Strait of Hormuz is reopening faster-than-expected after a US-Iran MoU and talks in Qatar, easing flows and pushing oil prices lower. Yet analysts warn the relief could be temporary: Chinese demand remains weak, Morgan Stanley has cut forecasts citing a possible oversupply, and full, stable resumption depends on continued geopolitical alignment and sanctions relief. Production gains in the Americas add to supply pressure, while uncertainties around August sanctions expiries and US elections keep the risk of a market-wide glut from becoming a lasting reality.