Hormuz oil flows triple under US-Iran truce but remain below pre-war levels

Key points

• Kpler data shows 374 million barrels exited the Gulf during the MoU period, averaging 6.1 million barrels per day, compared to 2.3 million before the agreement.
• The MoU, signed on June 17 and facilitated by Pakistan, expired on Monday without a permanent peace deal, as negotiations between Washington and Tehran stalled.
• Five commercial vessels were attacked in the strait in the past week, including the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity, which suffered a fatal projectile strike off Oman.
• At least 18 seafarers have been killed in the region since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, according to the International Maritime Organization.
• Brent crude futures rose slightly to $91.93 per barrel, with analysts warning that operator confidence remains low due to the lack of a durable diplomatic framework.

Background

Since the US and Israel began their conflict with Iran in late February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has faced severe disruptions. Previous reports indicated that while a ceasefire was declared, traffic remained significantly below pre-war levels, with only about 28 ships transiting daily compared to 100 before the conflict. Earlier analyses suggested that while the US claimed normalcy in oil flows, shipping data showed constrained traffic, with Middle Eastern oil increasingly moved via pipelines or shadow fleets. The current situation follows a period where Houthi threats in the Red Sea and tensions in Hormuz combined to tighten global oil flows and boost transport costs.

How outlets are covering it

Al Jazeera and Kpler emphasize the statistical reality that while oil flows tripled during the MoU, they remain far below pre-war levels, with volumes tapering off as the agreement neared its end. Axios offers a contrasting view, citing US officials who claim a stealth military operation is currently moving 10 million barrels daily through a southern channel, effectively mitigating supply disruptions. While Al Jazeera highlights the expiration of the MoU and the resulting uncertainty, Axios focuses on the US military's active control of the strait, noting that Iran's radar systems have been degraded. CNN’s source content was largely inaccessible due to technical errors, but its headline suggests a focus on the economic pressure Trump is applying to Iran, contrasting with the operational details provided by Axios.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical node for global energy supply, previously handling about one-fifth of the world's oil. The expiration of the MoU without a permanent peace deal introduces significant uncertainty into global energy markets. Continued attacks on commercial shipping threaten to disrupt supply chains and increase insurance and transport costs. The divergence between US claims of successful oil transport and independent data showing lower volumes creates a risk of market mispricing, potentially leading to higher oil prices and inflation for major importers like China, India, and Europe.

What to watch

Market analysts expect oil flows to decline further as the impasse between Washington and Tehran continues. Unless a durable diplomatic framework is established, operator confidence is likely to remain low. The US military may continue its stealth operations to maintain oil exports, but the lack of a permanent peace deal means the risk of renewed conflict and further attacks on commercial vessels remains high. Oil prices may continue to edge higher as markets anticipate reduced supply and increased geopolitical risk.