Russia's Unclear Purge of Wagner Group Troops in Africa

The status of the deal between Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin remains unclear, with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stating that Putin continues to allow Wagner and Prigozhin to operate in Russia. The ISW estimates that nearly 25,000 Wagner fighters have full freedom of movement within Russia, possibly due to Putin's confidence in their loyalty or an inability to take action against them. The rebellion has already benefited Ukraine and may permanently degrade Russia's capability to wage war in Ukraine. The ISW also suggests that Russian military leadership is considering replacing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as a consequence of the rebellion, and speculates that Wagner operations may be moved to new bases in Belarus in August 2023.