Mariupol: One Year On

A year after the last Ukrainian defenders left Mariupol, the war triggered by Vladimir Putin has established a negative equilibrium in which neither side can win nor lose. The war has become endless, with both sides adapting to a new rhythm and tempo of the conflict. The Western democracies see the war as a means of nailing Russia to one place, while China sees it as an opportunity to strengthen its hold on large chunks of the Russian Far East. The war could do longer-term harm to the EU in a number of ways, including deep divisions within the EU and the creation of a new category of semi-membership.