Fedorov’s Wartime Election Call Backfires, Ending Protests and Boosting His Poll Numbers

Key points

• Fedorov’s video address on August 18, demanding elections despite martial law, caused his supporters to stop attending rallies, with turnout dropping from thousands to fewer than 150 people within days.
• A source close to the President’s Office noted Fedorov’s polling support jumped from 2-3% to 12-15% in mid-August, placing him in the top three contenders alongside Zelensky and Valery Zaluzhny.
• Zelensky dismissed the idea of wartime elections as unrealistic, calling it a 'tsunami that would split Ukraine apart,' while Fedorov later clarified he advocated for preparing electoral legislation, not immediate voting.
• The video criticized corruption within Zelensky’s circle, specifically highlighting Andriy Yermak and David Arakhamia, but avoided naming the president directly, leading to criticism that Fedorov was being too cautious.
• Fedorov’s political strategists, Dmytro Tsarenko and Viktor Berezenko, are credited with shaping the message, which many analysts view as a failed attempt to enter opposition politics.

Background

Fedorov was dismissed in July 2026 after a conflict with the military command over defense ministry authority. His removal sparked 'cardboard' protests in Kyiv demanding his reinstatement and the continuation of procurement reforms. Prior to his video address, Fedorov had been a key figure in modernizing Ukraine’s drone and digital warfare capabilities, but his departure led to a cabinet reshuffle appointing Yevhen Khmara as the new defense minister.

Why it matters

Fedorov’s actions have shifted the political landscape by normalizing the discussion of elections during wartime, a topic previously considered fringe. His rising popularity threatens Zelensky’s dominance, as his disapproval rating exceeds 50%. The incident highlights the growing tension between the executive branch and reform-minded technocrats, potentially influencing future legislative changes regarding democratic processes under martial law.

What to watch

Fedorov plans to travel to the United States to attract investment for Ukrainian military technology and establish a think tank. He has not confirmed whether he will run for president, stating he will decide once the country is ready for elections. The government continues to monitor his polling numbers, while the broader debate on electoral legislation under martial law may accelerate due to his public advocacy.