Five futures for Merz as Germany’s leadership hangs in the balance

POLITICO analyzes five rated scenarios for Chancellor Friedrich Merz amid a steep drop in support and two upcoming state elections, from resignation if party backing collapses to Merz clinging to power; no‑confidence and confidence votes look unlikely, while a path involving far-right backing would be controversial inside the CDU/CSU. Polls show Merz at about 14% approval, CDU/CSU around 18%, and AfD leading in some surveys, with potential implications for coalition dynamics and possible caretaker arrangements if leadership changes occur.