Israel's 2026 Election Deadlock: Arab Parties Hold Key to Government Formation

Key points

• Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats, while Eisenkot's opposition has 48, leaving both short of the 61-seat majority needed to govern.
• Arab parties secured 19 seats, a historic increase from 10, giving them decisive influence over coalition formation.
• Ultra-Orthodox parties are considering breaking with Netanyahu to support an Eisenkot-led minority government, potentially resolving the military service dispute.
• Arab parties have signaled willingness to support an opposition government from outside the coalition, but face internal and external opposition to such an arrangement.
• A unity government between Likud and Yashar remains a possibility, but would require Eisenkot to break his pre-election pledge not to serve under Netanyahu.
• President Isaac Herzog will receive formal results on November 4 and must decide who to task with forming a government, with the new Knesset expected to be sworn in on November 10.

Background

This election followed the 2023 Hamas attack and was seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership. Previous coverage noted the fragmented results and the potential for a constitutional crisis if Netanyahu refused to accept the outcome. The surge in Arab voter turnout, driven by concerns over crime, discrimination, and the right-wing coalition's policies, has shifted the political landscape.

How outlets are covering it

Fox News emphasizes the 'bitter stalemate' and the potential for a unity government or another election, highlighting the complexity of coalition negotiations. The New York Times argues that the election is unlikely to change Israel's policies or global isolation, noting that Netanyahu and Eisenkot are not substantially different in their approach to security or the Palestinian state. CNN focuses on the historic Arab voter turnout and the potential for Arab parties to shape the government, while also highlighting the racism and discrimination faced by Palestinian citizens of Israel. The Jerusalem Post argues that the opposition must work with Arab parties to oust Netanyahu, despite pre-election pledges, and criticizes the opposition for breaking their promises.

Why it matters

The outcome of these negotiations will determine Israel's next government and its policies on security, the Palestinian conflict, and domestic issues. The potential for a prolonged political deadlock or a second election could exacerbate instability and impact Israel's international relations. The role of Arab parties in coalition formation also has significant implications for the rights and representation of Palestinian citizens of Israel.

What to watch

President Isaac Herzog will receive formal results on November 4 and must decide who to task with forming a government. The new Knesset is expected to be sworn in on November 10. Coalition negotiations will continue, with potential outcomes including an Eisenkot-led minority government with Arab support, a unity government, or another election. The Trump administration's Middle East agenda may also influence the negotiations.