Liberals Capture Quebec Seat in By-Election Sweep, Boosting Carney Amid US Trade War

Key points

• Liberals won all three by-elections: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord (Quebec), Beaches-East York (Ontario), and North Vancouver-Capilano (British Columbia).
• Daniel Gobeil won the Quebec seat, previously held by Conservatives since 2018, with over 50% of the vote.
• Carney’s approval ratings rose by four points in recent weeks, driven by public support for ending trade talks with the US.
• The Conservatives suffered a significant defeat in Quebec, falling to third place with approximately 13% of the vote.
• The results bring the Liberal Party to 173 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons, strengthening Carney’s majority.

Background

This development follows the collapse of US-Canada trade talks on August 21, 2026, after which the US imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods. Carney’s decision to walk away from negotiations was framed as a stand against unfair terms, resonating with voters amid fears of US annexation. Previous archive coverage noted that these by-elections were triggered by the resignations of three MPs earlier in the year, including Conservative Richard Martel, who was appointed to the Senate. The political landscape has been shaped by Trump’s aggressive trade policies and rhetoric, including renaming Lake Ontario to 'Lake America' and demanding Canadian firms relocate headquarters to the US.

How outlets are covering it

BBC and The Guardian both emphasize the political boost for Carney and the symbolic significance of the Quebec victory, linking it to public anger over US trade policies. CBC focuses on the specific results in North Vancouver-Capilano, highlighting the local outcome within the broader national trend. The Guardian notes that Liberal leader Hedy Fry interpreted the results as a message to the US, while BBC cites pollster Abacus Data linking Carney’s rising approval to Trump’s unpopularity. All sources agree that the Conservative loss in Quebec is a major setback for Pierre Poilievre, with The Guardian quoting political scientist Daniel Béland as calling the Conservative collapse 'bad news' for the party’s leadership. BBC highlights the economic impact on Quebec, citing Oxford Economics’ warning of potential C$2 billion in lost annual output by 2028, while The Guardian focuses more on the political dynamics and Carney’s diplomatic pivot toward Europe.

Why it matters

The by-election results confirm that Carney’s confrontational stance with the US has translated into domestic political support, strengthening his government’s mandate to pursue alternative trade partnerships. The loss of a key Quebec seat by the Conservatives signals a potential realignment in Canadian politics, where anti-US sentiment may outweigh traditional party loyalties. This could influence future federal elections and Canada’s economic strategy, as the country seeks to reduce reliance on the US market amid ongoing trade disputes.

What to watch

Carney is expected to continue diversifying Canada’s trade relationships, particularly with Europe, as indicated by recent diplomatic efforts. The Conservative Party may face internal pressure to reassess its strategy under Poilievre, given the poor performance in the by-elections. Further trade negotiations or retaliatory measures between Canada and the US may follow, with potential impacts on industries such as aluminum and dairy in Quebec. Polls suggest that Carney’s approval may continue to rise if the trade dispute remains unresolved, while the Conservatives risk further losses in upcoming elections.