Strait Power Play and Hezbollah Tunnels Mark Iran-Israel Update

ISW-CTP report that Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz lets Tehran selectively allow passage and set fees, with signs it may discount tolls for friendly states like China, challenging free navigation under UNCLOS. In Lebanon, the IDF says it controls Hezbollah’s underground tunnel networks near Beaufort Castle and will continue operations, warning of a swift offensive if Hezbollah breaches the ceasefire, while urging the Lebanese Armed Forces to dismantle militant infrastructure under the June framework. UKMTO notes an attack on a bulk carrier off Hudaydah with no group claiming responsibility. There are no significant updates on US–Iran negotiations or US–Israel air campaign.
- Iran Update Special Report, July 5, 2026 Institute for the Study of War
- Iran Update Special Report, July 2, 2026 Institute for the Study of War
- The Iranian Arena (June 2026) – Status of Events Alma Research and Education Center
- Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | June 28, 2026 DWS Asset Management
- Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (June 24—July 1, 2026) - The Amit Terrorism and Intelligence Research Institute terrorism-info.org.il
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