China’s Taiwan Beachhead Dream Fails Under War-game Scrutiny
A Dupuy Institute wargame study argues that an opposed Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan would struggle greatly: at most one PLAN Marine Brigade could land, Taiwan’s road network enables rapid redeployment to counter Western coast landings, and China lacks credible artillery or air superiority to suppress defenses. Civilian RO-RO ferries offer limited lift and are vulnerable without secured ports. Resulting attrition would be high, and a sustained beachhead seems unlikely, pushing China toward a slower buildup around Chiayi rather than a rapid takeover. The analysis underscores Taiwan’s defensibility and the importance of pre-emptive or deterrent action, air-sea control, and heavier fires than China currently demonstrates.