Are March Madness favorites really upset-proof? History tests the top teams
The piece uses Bart Torvik’s Profile Comparison and KenPom data to compare the current top eight teams (as of March 10) with historically similar squads since 2008, assessing how they fared in the NCAA Tournament. While Duke, Michigan and Arizona stand out numerically, the historical comps show a mix of deep runs and upset losses for similar teams, meaning there isn’t a true “upset-proof” favorite—outcomes hinge on dynamics like efficiency, tempo, matchups, and late-game execution.