Ukrainian Gains Mount as Russian Offense Slows, SPIEF Strikes Undercut Kremlin Narrative
Multiple sources indicate Russia’s battlefield momentum is waning while Ukraine regains territory (May totals ~250 sq km liberated vs ~130 sq km captured by Russia; April ~80 sq km regained vs ~150–160 sq km captured). ISW places May Russian gains at ~40 sq km seized/infiltrated (with ~280 sq km of lost control when infiltrations are excluded) and notes ongoing Ukrainian advances around Kostyantynivka, Slovyansk, and Oleksandrivka. Ukraine struck St. Petersburg during SPIEF, challenging Moscow’s narrative, as fuel shortages spread in occupied Ukraine and nearby Russian regions. Ukrainian mid-range strikes continue to disrupt major GLOCs; Russia pursues long-range drone campaigns while the Kremlin remains resistant to negotiated settlements. Overall, the war outlook shows declining Russian offensive momentum and persistent Ukrainian counterpressure.