The Iran War’s Real Center of Gravity: Its Institutions, Not Its Arsenal
Using Clausewitz and Jomini, Hertling argues that Iran’s center of gravity is not its arsenal but its institutions (the IRGC and clerical leadership), which are capable of absorbing shocks and sustaining the regime even as Iran disperses assets and shifts to asymmetric warfare. Decisive points are diffuse—ranging from missile capabilities to economic and psychological levers—so traditional military strikes may not degrade Iran’s power. Past conflicts show destroying conventional forces doesn’t topple regimes, and intelligence is often unreliable in foggy, friction-filled warfare. We’re still figuring out how to affect Iran’s center of gravity amid uncertainty.