Anthropic's 2030 Economic Index Omits the Doomsday Scenario
Anthropic releases its Economic Index growth model to forecast the 2030 economy across AI adoption scenarios. The takeaway is that in normal to moderate AI growth, unemployment stays within historical ranges and wages stay flat or rise by industry; in a growth surge faster than any historical precedent, wages for knowledge workers could fall even as the economy becomes wealthier. The extreme projection envisions a roughly 50% larger economy with about 30% unemployment, while zero AI adoption yields a baseline. The model analyzes jobs as bundles of tasks and does not account for an AI bubble or the controversial ‘everybody dies’ outcome. Alignment researchers also note broader risks beyond the model’s scope.