Strait at Stake: Iran’s Faction Rivalry Shapes Strategy Amid Sanctions
ISW-CTP’s Iran Update outlines a three-way power struggle inside Iran as factions vie over negotiations and control of the Strait of Hormuz: an IRGC-led group pushing for total strait control and a hardline stance, a pro-negotiations bloc seeking some control with economic relief, and a Paydari Front opposing talks. Tehran rejects ceding strait dominance even with mediation proposals like a 10-day truce, while escalating pressure via proxies (Houthis, Iraqi militias) to extract concessions from the US. Economic pain, sanctions, and protests add to regime stability concerns, even as Iran highlights its perceived missile/drone defenses. Regional actors and NATO-related forces remain entwined in a volatile security landscape.