Bull Market Indicator Predicts Next Move for S&P 500.
According to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, every new bull market has been higher one year after officially beginning. The average bull market gained an additional 28.2% in the 12-month period after bouncing 20% off of bear market lows. Additionally, if the S&P 500 is higher by at least 7% on a year-to-date basis by the 100th day of trading, the benchmark index has closed the year with a positive return all 26 times since 1950. However, the consensus for a U.S. recession is growing, and commercial bank lending and M2 money supply are also potential warning signs for the U.S. economy.