Stock Market Signals: Predicting the Next President and Investment Moves
A stock market indicator linked to the S&P 500, which has historically predicted the outcome of U.S. presidential elections with 86% accuracy, suggests a favorable outcome for Kamala Harris in 2024. The indicator shows that the incumbent party is often reelected when the S&P 500 rises in the three months leading up to the election, as it did this year. However, the race remains tight, and the indicator is not infallible, having been wrong in past elections such as 1968 and 1980.