SpaceX Valuation Reassessed as AI Revenue Forecasts Surge

Key points

• 2027 sales estimates rose from $70 billion to $100 billion, and Ebitda estimates from $28 billion to $59 billion.
• AI revenue projections for 2027 increased to $60 billion, with 2031 estimates reaching $530 billion.
• The company’s 2027 Ebitda multiple is approximately 34 times, compared to 25 times for GE Aerospace.
• SpaceX’s IPO raised $85.67 billion in net proceeds, addressing a cash balance of $15.85 billion as of March 2026.
• Starlink remains the only profitable segment, generating $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025.

Background

In February 2026, SpaceX merged with xAI, a move initially criticized by Barron’s as a disadvantage for SpaceX shareholders due to xAI’s cash burn. Following a record-setting IPO in June 2026, where the stock was priced at $135, the company faced immediate market volatility, with the stock falling below its offering price within weeks. Prior to the IPO, SpaceX held $15.85 billion in cash after spending $10.1 billion in capital expenditures in a single quarter, primarily for AI supercomputers.

How outlets are covering it

Barron’s argues that the accelerated AI growth justifies a higher valuation, noting that the stock is now worth more than its previous $90 estimate, though it remains cautious about the sustainability of revenue derived from renting computing capacity to competitors like Google and Anthropic. NYU professor Aswath Damodaran disagrees, maintaining his lower valuation estimates and warning that leasing compute power undermines SpaceX’s long-term AI narrative, which should rely on proprietary AI agents. Conversely, Emerald Book highlights the paradox of a $2 trillion valuation against a cash-poor balance sheet, suggesting the market is pricing in 'faith' rather than current financials, while Yahoo Finance notes the potential for long-term growth in Starlink and Starship despite the current AI-driven valuation surge.

Why it matters

The rapid revision of SpaceX’s financial forecasts signals a fundamental shift in how investors value AI infrastructure companies. The divergence between cash burn and market capitalization highlights the risks and rewards of betting on future technological dominance. As SpaceX transitions from a cash-burning entity to one with positive free cash flow expectations, its ability to sustain AI growth without relying solely on leasing compute will determine whether the current valuation is justified or a bubble.

What to watch

Investors will monitor whether SpaceX can convert its compute leasing revenue into sustainable AI agent subscriptions. The company’s ability to maintain positive free cash flow by 2030 and the performance of its Starlink and Starship divisions will be critical in validating the revised valuation. Damodaran’s skepticism regarding the quality of AI revenue will likely influence long-term investment strategies.