SpaceX in a Year: Big Upside or Sharp Downside Ahead

A Motley Fool piece weighs SpaceX’s high IPO valuation (around $1.8 trillion) against strong growth catalysts and notable risks. Bullish cases cite a revenue run rate that could double thanks to Anthropic and Alphabet deals, Starlink’s solid EBITDA margin and market opportunity, Starship’s potential, and xAI optionality that could lift the stock if progress accelerates. Bears argue the valuation is steep (Morningstar fair value around $780B) and warn of risks like a looming IPO lockup expiration and a potential earnings disappointment. The article refrains from predicting a precise price but outlines two plausible paths over the next year: SpaceX could near $4 trillion if xAI losses stabilize and Starlink stays on its growth trajectory, or suffer roughly a 50% drawdown under adverse conditions.