The Recession Debate: Exploring Different Perspectives.

The Philly Fed's map of State Coincident Indexes shows that over the past three months, the coincident indexes for all 50 states have increased, with a 1% chance of a recession currently, according to Ned Davis Research's probability chart. Despite the yield curve inversion, it is difficult to objectively state that the US is currently in a recession or will be anytime soon. The wildcard is how much the FOMC overtightens rates and causes a recession through their future rate hikes.