Trump-Era Policies Could Propel a Historic 2027 Social Security COLA, but at a Price

Early independent estimates place Social Security’s 2027 COLA at historically high levels, with forecasts ranging from about 3.9% (Senior Citizens League) to 4.2% (Mary Johnson), aided by inflation boosted by tariff policy and an oil-price spike tied to Middle East tensions. If realized, it would be the fourth-largest COLA since 1991; however a bigger raise would hasten the depletion of the OASI trust fund and could necessitate substantial future benefit cuts (around 23% by the early 2030s). Trump-era tax and spending changes also reduce payroll-tax revenue, costing Social Security roughly $168.6 billion from 2025–2034 and nudging the exhaustion timeline forward to late 2032.