Biofuel Mandates Could Push Gas Prices Higher, Even Without Iran

Record-high EPA biofuel mandates are driving Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) to all-time highs; with the cushion of unused credits shrinking, Bloomberg projects the RIN buffer could hit zero by year-end and turn to a deficit in 2027, lifting refiners’ costs and potentially adding 26–45 cents per gallon at the pump. Integrated players like Valero, which generate credits in-house, may fare better than pure merchant refiners like PBF that must buy credits on the open market, while ADM has shown improving margins in biofuel-related segments. The risk is regulatory-driven rather than geopolitical, making EPA policy and renewable fuel profitability key watchpoints for investors.