CAPE Signals Bubble Risk: Rare Valuation Level Echoes Dot-Com Era

The S&P 500’s Shiller CAPE ratio has stayed above about 40 since early May 2026, a level last seen during the dot-com bubble, suggesting stretched valuations. Yet history shows no two bear markets are alike, and remaining invested with selective, quality buys may be safer than trying to time a crash; Crestmont research notes positive returns over every 20-year period since 1919, underscoring the case for long-horizon investing even amid volatility.