History Says a Split Congress Under Trump Isn’t Likely to Sink Stocks

Historical data since 1946 shows stock gains can persist even with a divided Congress. The article notes that the Dow averaged about 12.9% annual returns in periods of split leadership, while a unified Republican government saw higher long-run returns (about 14.5% for the S&P 500) and a Republican president with a divided Congress averaged roughly 7.3%. It emphasizes that corporate earnings growth, not political alignment, drives long-run gains, supported by Crestmont Research’s finding that virtually every rolling 20-year period since 1900 produced positive total returns. Even if Election Night yields a split, stocks are likely to head higher over the long run, though near-term moves could be modest amid policy uncertainty (tax, debt ceiling, shutdown risks).