SpaceX Rally Triggers Caution as Unlocks Boost Short‑Term Supply

SPCX jumped about 9–11% to around $146, aided by a rebound after earnings and a surge in unlocked SpaceX shares, but Morningstar warns the rally may be a supply‑demand phenomenon rather than a change in fundamentals; the firm sticks to a $62 fair value and notes SpaceX’s Q2 revenue up 92% to $7.8B yet ongoing operating losses due to heavy AI infrastructure and R&D spend. Short interest collapsed to roughly 11% from 34% as more than 911 million shares unlocked and another 319 million could unlock on Aug. 20, potentially fueling further volatility as funds and retail investors absorb the float. Retail sentiment on StockTwits was “extremely bullish,” but analysts caution investors to divorce near‑term trading from SpaceX’s long‑term intrinsic value while SpaceX pursues ambitious targets like a $100B annual revenue run rate by year’s end.