"Yield Curve Un-Inverts, Easing Recession Concerns"

The closely watched 2-year/10-year Treasury yield spread, a key recession indicator, has become less negative due to disinflation rather than economic growth prospects, according to strategist Lawrence Gillum. The un-inverting curve and rate-cut expectations are driven by the narrative of inflation returning to 2% faster than expected, rather than recession fears. Despite geopolitical events affecting oil prices, the bond market is not currently signaling an impending U.S. recession, as indicated by fed funds trading.