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Federal Reserve

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Markets brace for Nvidia earnings as Jackson Hole looms
markets7 hours ago

Markets brace for Nvidia earnings as Jackson Hole looms

US stock futures rose ahead of Nvidia's earnings and the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole summit, with Dow futures up about 0.4%, S&P 500 futures up 0.5%, and Nasdaq-100 futures up around 1%, as traders await key data (ADP payrolls, new home sales, PMIs) and earnings from INTU, ZM, and DKS. Bitcoin topped $80,000 amid dollar‑driven anxieties from Iran sanctions, while oil crept higher and gold paused after recent rallies as markets prep for the Jackson Hole speech.

business1 day ago

Bond Market Awakens as Fed Repression Fades and Deficits Grow

From Wolf Richter: the Treasury bond market, long subdued by Fed QE and a bloated balance sheet, is finally functioning again as persistent deficits and inflation fears push yields higher; past interventions like Treasury buybacks didn’t hold the line, and without credible fiscal consolidation, higher borrowing costs and ongoing inflation could follow, signaling the market’s demand for real policy reform.

Warsh's pared-back messaging tested as inflation risk edges higher ahead of Jackson Hole
business1 day ago

Warsh's pared-back messaging tested as inflation risk edges higher ahead of Jackson Hole

US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh aims to reassure markets amid signs of economic strain—record debt, higher long-dated yields, and tariff tensions—while preparing for a Jackson Hole speech that will outline his pared-back, less-guidance approach; economists warn this could erode Fed credibility and delay the inflation fight, especially as polls show many believe the Fed will take longer to reach its 2% target.

Nvidia earnings and Jackson Hole set the tone for a busy AI-driven week
finance2 days ago

Nvidia earnings and Jackson Hole set the tone for a busy AI-driven week

Markets brace for Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday as the AI rally faces a key test, while the Jackson Hole symposium and the latest PCE inflation data will shape the Fed’s next move. A surprise Treasury bond-buyback expansion adds yield dynamics to watch, even as retailers report and consumer data gauge demand ahead of September policy. Crypto markets have shown resilience on liquidity cues, but the overarching theme is whether AI-driven gains can sustain amid earnings expectations and shifting policy signals.

Bessent's bid to soothe the bond market runs into Fed ambiguity
business4 days ago

Bessent's bid to soothe the bond market runs into Fed ambiguity

Treasury Secretary Bessent’s attempts to calm the bond market with large-scale buybacks aren’t easing the turbulence, as investors await clearer guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on whether rates will rise and how inflation will be measured. The market reaction after the July Fed meeting was mixed—shorter-term yields slipped while longer-term yields rose— underscoring uncertainty about policy paths. Analysts say Treasury interventions have only temporary effects given the scale of the market and persistent inflation dynamics, and Warsh’s reluctance to signal a concrete plan keeps markets guessing ahead of his Jackson Hole speech. In short, the Fed’s stance and inflation outlook, not Treasury purchases, are driving the ongoing volatility.

Trump pushes for lower rates as inflation concerns keep Fed cautious
politics5 days ago

Trump pushes for lower rates as inflation concerns keep Fed cautious

President Trump pressed the Fed to cut rates, arguing they’re artificially high, while the central bank reiterates its independence amid inflation concerns; markets expect no move in September, but July minutes show inflation could stay elevated and some policymakers hint at higher rates if it doesn’t cool, as the debt nears $40 trillion and inflation runs around 3.4% year over year with a cooling labor market.

Trump presses for lower rates, accuses Fed of political bias
business5 days ago

Trump presses for lower rates, accuses Fed of political bias

Former President Trump renewed his push for easier monetary policy, saying the Fed shouldn’t let strong data deter rate cuts and accusing officials of politics-driven decisions. He praised Warsh, argued rate reductions are needed to sustain growth and ease debt costs, and contrasted U.S. rates with Switzerland’s near-zero levels as the Treasury steps up a long‑term bond buyback program amid persistent inflation above the 2% target.

Goldman Sees September Fed Hike as Unlikely as Inflation Slows
finance7 days ago

Goldman Sees September Fed Hike as Unlikely as Inflation Slows

Goldman Sachs argues a September 25-basis-point Fed rate hike is unlikely as inflation cools and recent data undershoot—making the hawkish path priced into markets too aggressive. Hatzius notes inflation is more likely to improve through the year, with July data easing fears of deterioration. CME data had put odds of a hike around 30% ahead of the meeting (Sept. 15-16). The bank also expects the yield curve to steepen on cooling price pressures and waning rate-hike expectations, even as it posts strong Q2 results (EPS $20.98, revenue $20.34B) fueled by equities and investment banking.

Markets drift as retailers loom: futures mixed ahead of big earnings week
markets8 days ago

Markets drift as retailers loom: futures mixed ahead of big earnings week

US stock futures were mixed Monday as investors awaited a slate of retail earnings (Walmart, Target, Lowe’s, Home Depot) and weighed the Fed’s next move. Dow futuresfell about 0.2%, S&P 500 futures rose ~0.1%, and Nasdaq-100 futures gained ~0.5%. Oil climbed toward $89 a barrel, while 10- and 30-year yields edged higher ahead of the FOMC minutes, with traders trimming expectations for a September rate hike to under one-third.

Warsh's 2% Anchor Pushes Markets Into New Sensitivity
finance10 days ago

Warsh's 2% Anchor Pushes Markets Into New Sensitivity

Wall Street is dissecting every remark from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Following a notably short FOMC statement and cautious speeches, Warsh has declared there is no soft inflation target—only a 2% target—hinting at potentially tighter policy if inflation stays elevated. This stance has sharpened market sensitivity: bond yields edge higher and stocks swing as investors parse macro data, while Warsh’s restrained forward guidance makes each word carry more weight in shaping expectations for monetary policy.

Markets Edge Higher as Rate-Hike Bets Meet Fresh Earnings
markets12 days ago

Markets Edge Higher as Rate-Hike Bets Meet Fresh Earnings

US stock futures tick higher as investors weigh cooling inflation signals against ongoing expectations for rate hikes, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq set to rise ahead of inflation readings and a heavy earnings calendar. Cisco and Cerebras beat estimates but slid in after-hours trading, while Applied Materials is due to report later. Data showing slower inflation at the wholesale level softens near-term expectations, but traders still foresee at least one Fed rate hike this year. Oil prices fell, jobless claims edged up though continuing claims fell, and retailers’ earnings on deck (TPR, DDS, BIRK) add to the market’s focus on how tariffs and inflation are affecting profits.

AI optimism lifts markets as CoreWeave shines
markets12 days ago

AI optimism lifts markets as CoreWeave shines

U.S. stocks rose on upbeat CoreWeave results and AI infrastructure momentum, with the S&P 500 up about 0.3% to roughly 7,751 and the Nasdaq higher as AI peers rallied (CoreWeave up ~19%, Nebius ~28%, Super Micro up ~18%; Nvidia and Micron also higher). Eight of 11 sectors gained, led by tech, while July inflation was mild and gasoline fell, reinforcing bets the Fed will hold rates in September (roughly 62% odds). The Dow inched higher as investors priced in a steady monetary path amid continuing AI enthusiasm.