Micron’s New Demand Floor: 2030 Contracts Redefine the Memory Play

Micron’s 16 Strategic Customer Agreements through 2030 lock in roughly $100B of minimum revenue with floor margins, backed by about $22B in deposits, signaling a contract-backed shift in the memory cycle; the June quarter posted $41.46B revenue, 84.6% gross margin, and $18.3B free cash flow, with guidance for $50B Q4 revenue and $31 EPS, while the stock trades near 6x forward earnings with about $24B in net cash. The bull thesis rests on sustained AI data-center demand keeping memory demand tight beyond 2027, justifying ongoing buying of MU, though risks include customer concentration in HBM4 and a large capex cycle.