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Grantham: SpaceX's IPO Will Be a Laughable History Lesson
2 days ago•Source: Fortune
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SCHD’s Tiny Fee Masks a 38% Ten-Year Performance Gap
SCHD’s 0.06% expense ratio is tiny, but the fund’s concentration—top 10 holdings make up about 40% of assets, with energy exposure around 17%—has coincided with a 38% lag to WisdomTree’s DGRW over the last decade, costing roughly $3,800 on a $10,000 investment. A March 2026 reconstitution also reduced a quarterly dividend, underscoring that income can be unstable despite a “defensive” label. For broader income, consider VYM; for a quality-growth tilt, DGRW; and for broader diversification you may already hold similar exposure in VOO or VIG. In short, the fee is cheap, but the real cost is opportunity cost and concentration, not the expense ratio.
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Nvidia’s AI Push Elevates CoreWeave and Nokia as Potential Winners
The Motley Fool highlights Nvidia-backed plays CoreWeave and Nokia as potential beneficiaries of Nvidia’s AI surge. CoreWeave, a neocloud provider, reports strong revenue growth and a huge $99 billion backlog fueled by Nvidia tech and its Vera Rubin platform, but carries roughly $25 billion in debt and a rich valuation. Nokia is integrating Nvidia ARC-Pro processors into its 5G equipment to enable AI inference and CUDA support, and is involved in data-center upgrades with customers like T-Mobile and Orange, with modest 2025–2026 revenue growth but a notable year‑long stock rally. The piece frames these stocks as Nvidia‑driven opportunities while noting valuation and balance‑sheet risks, and it points readers to broader Fool Stock Advisor recommendations.)
SpaceX IPO Sparks Big Hopes, but 3-Year Outlook Looks Risky for a $1,000 Bet
SpaceX’s IPO surged on debut, but history shows big, high-valuation IPOs often underperform over the next three years. With SpaceX trading at over 100x sales and needing near-perfect execution, a $1,000 investment today could drop by a few hundred dollars over three years, making the long‑term upside less certain.
Analysts Favor Nvidia Over Micron as AI Boom Continues
Wall Street favors Nvidia over Micron: Nvidia trades around $208 with a median target near $300 (about 44% upside), while Micron trades around $1,034 with a median target near $949 (roughly 8% downside). Nvidia’s AI-dominant GPUs and the Grace Blackwell/Vera Rubin roadmap support strong growth, whereas Micron faces a commoditized memory market, losing share to Samsung and SK Hynix in a cycle expected to peak around 2028, leading analysts to view Nvidia as undervalued and Micron as overpriced.
SpaceX Stock Rally Sparks Dilemma: Buy Now or Wait for the Hype to Cool?
SpaceX’s IPO debut sparked a strong rally, with SPCX trading around $191 after a ~58% gain from the IPO price, prompting a buy-now or wait-for-hype-to-subside debate. While SpaceX dominates launches and has potential from Starlink and xAI, its huge near-$3 trillion valuation hinges on profits years away, making momentum-driven buying risky for some investors. Long-term players may look to Tesla’s pattern—patience and a focus on fundamentals rather than chasing headlines.
Oracle Emerges as the Real AI Infrastructure Play Amid Micron's Pullback
The piece argues Micron’s very high 74% gross margins and a 760% one-year run signal a peak AI memory cycle, with memory margins historically compressing in downturns. By contrast, Oracle just delivered a record Q4, backed by a $638 billion Remaining Performance Obligations backlog and a cloud-focused growth trajectory (cloud now ~52% of revenue), providing revenue visibility through subscriptions. Oracle also raised FY27 revenue guidance to $90 billion and pays a $0.50 quarterly dividend, making ORCL a contrarian but potentially steadier AI infrastructure play as MU pulls back.
Berkshire Bets Big on Alphabet to Win the AI Era
Berkshire Hathaway has substantially increased its Alphabet stake, tripling it earlier and adding roughly $10 billion from Alphabet’s $80 billion equity raise, giving Berkshire about 86.7 million Alphabet shares (roughly $30.9 billion) and making Alphabet Berkshire’s fourth-largest public holding. The move reflects a bet that Alphabet will win the generative AI race, leveraging its in-house data centers and TPU chips for a cost and capacity edge over OpenAI and Anthropic.
SpaceX IPO Sends Saudi Prince’s Wealth to New Heights
Kingdom Holding Co., the investment firm of Saudi royal Alwaleed bin Talal, saw the value of its 42.4 million SpaceX shares rise to about $6.8 billion on SpaceX’s debut, boosting the prince’s net worth to just over $27 billion as SpaceX raised a record $75 billion in its IPO and fueling Gulf AI/tech investment momentum.
SpaceX IPO Frenzy Reveals a Hidden Leveraged-ETF Risk for Investors
SpaceX’s record $75 billion IPO sparked massive investor demand and a lofty valuation, but a new risk emerged: 2x leveraged ETFs like SPCF are designed to deliver twice SpaceX’s daily moves and reset daily, which means they can lose money or underperform over longer horizons due to daily compounding and volatility; with leveraged ETFs seeing record daily volume, the trades appear skewed toward short‑term speculation. For long‑term investors, the advice is to focus on owning SpaceX directly or a broad index rather than trying to leverage bets through these funds.
Micron Bulls See Big Upside, But Is the Rally Truly Justified?
Micron Technology trades near $900 with a forward multiple around 8–9x after a strong Q2 beat and guidance, as NVIDIA certifies MU as an HBM4 supplier for the Vera Rubin AI project. The company’s Q3 guide ($33.5B revenue, $19.15 EPS, ~81% gross margin) and a 30% dividend raise plus $650M in buybacks bolster the bull case that AI-memory demand could keep margins elevated. Yet insiders have been net sellers while the stock has surged well over the past year, underscoring remaining cyclicality in memory stocks. A high-profile target of $1,750 contrasts with consensus around ~$939, signaling a wide split on valuation. If demand stays robust, 8–9x forward earnings could look cheap; if AI demand slows or memory cycles turn, the stock could face a meaningful pullback.
SpaceX IPO: A Risky Bet That Could Leave Retail Investors Holding the Bag
The Motley Fool argues SpaceX’s massive IPO could shortchange everyday investors: rules accelerating megacap IPOs into major indexes will force large funds to buy SpaceX shares after the debut, insiders may dump stock early due to a shortened lockup, and a lofty $1.8 trillion valuation comes with ongoing losses, making the IPO a high-risk bet for retail buyers.