If Peace Returns, Oil Flows Back—But It Won’t Be a Quick Restart

Even if the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, restoring full oil flow will take weeks to months: clearing bottlenecks, drawing down inventories, restarting Middle Eastern production, and repairing damaged infrastructure. Prices could ease if peace lasts, with Brent near the high $90s per barrel for much of this year, but the timeline hinges on credible passage guarantees, insurance costs, and Iran’s terms—so a rapid market reset remains unlikely.