JPMorgan Misses Estimates as Bull Market Turns Four Amid Oil Spike

Key points

• JPMorgan Chase reported a rare earnings miss, with shares dropping over 3% in premarket trading before recovering slightly after the bank raised its net interest income guidance for 2026.
• Goldman Sachs shares jumped over 3.5% after the bank reported a record $1.65 billion in advisory revenue and a 72% year-over-year increase in equities trading revenue.
• Wells Fargo shares fell despite beating earnings expectations, as the bank missed on revenue; CEO Charlie Scharf cited risks from higher interest rates and persistent inflation.
• Brent crude futures exceeded $106 per barrel on Monday following President Trump's decision to allow Russian diesel exports for six months, despite bipartisan criticism.
• Delta Air Lines postponed the launch of its first nonstop commercial flight between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to March, citing safety concerns after Houthi strikes on Riyadh’s airport.
• Meta launched 'Muse Wonder,' its most advanced AI model, available via a subscription plan starting at $20 per month, aiming to diversify revenue beyond advertising.

Background

The S&P 500 officially entered its fourth year as a bull market on Monday, October 12, 2026. U.S. stock markets remained open for trading despite Columbus Day being a federal holiday, while bond markets and the Federal Reserve remained closed. Investors were anticipating a strong quarter for corporate earnings, with S&P 500 profit growth expected to reach 30%.

How outlets are covering it

CNBC highlights the divergence in bank performance, noting JPMorgan’s rare miss alongside Goldman Sachs’s strong results, and frames the Russian diesel deal as a key driver for oil prices. Yahoo Finance’s data reflects the market’s mixed reaction, showing JPMorgan shares up slightly in regular trading after premarket losses, while Citigroup shares fell 3.5%. Both sources agree on the impact of oil prices and the delayed Delta route, but CNBC emphasizes the broader market sentiment and AI developments, whereas Yahoo Finance focuses on specific stock price movements and technical data.

Why it matters

The mixed bank earnings signal potential stress in the financial sector, with JPMorgan’s miss raising questions about the resilience of the largest U.S. bank. The rise in oil prices due to the Russian diesel deal could exacerbate inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The delayed Delta route underscores ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, while Meta’s paid AI model indicates a shift toward monetizing AI beyond advertising.

What to watch

Investors will monitor the rest of the bank earnings season, particularly Citigroup’s results, to gauge the health of the financial sector. Oil prices will be watched closely for further spikes, which could impact inflation and consumer spending. Delta Air Lines will prepare for its March launch of the Riyadh route, while Meta will track adoption of its new AI model. The Federal Reserve will continue to assess inflation risks, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warning of an entrenched inflationary mindset.