Oil Markets Defy Disruption as Iran Conflict Drags On

Despite a protracted conflict with Iran, the oil market has remained functional and resilient. Countries rerouted crude around the Strait of Hormuz, big stockpiles remain, and global demand has fallen, helping to keep prices from spikes even as about 13 million barrels per day were temporarily removed from the market. JPMorgan and other analysts see the new normal potentially lasting for some time, with Brent prices around the upper $80s if the war endures; if the war ends, prices could fall toward the mid-$60s. However, several experts warn that extended tensions could deplete inventories and trigger higher volatility and prices, possibly forcing an end to the conflict. Risks include storage at critical lows (like Cushing), costly military escorts, and ongoing constrained Hormuz exports through next year, suggesting the market may not return to pre-war calm anytime soon.