Soft ADP Sparks Gold and Silver Rally as Fed-Hike Bets Remain Uncertain

Spot gold rose about 0.3% and silver about 0.7% after softer-than-expected ADP private payrolls, easing some pressure from higher oil prices and yields, though markets still price a roughly 67%–70% chance of a September rate hike. Oil remains firm with Brent near $95 and WTI above $90, supporting inflation fears and the case for another Fed move. Technically, gold sits above the recent support zone but remains below key resistance, suggesting a relief bounce in a damaged chart while Friday’s payrolls and other data (Beige Book, jobless claims, ISM services) will be critical for the next move. Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz add a defensive bid, but the overall move is tempered by higher rates and a stronger dollar.