SpaceX's Retail Rally Faces Lockup Risk as Shares Could Double

Retail investors have piled into SpaceX (SPCX) since its IPO, with a net $22.7 million bought in the first hour of trading on Wednesday—one of the largest opening-hour hauls in 37 sessions—even as SPCX has more than halved from its peak and sits below its IPO price. According to Vanda Research, retail buyers have not been net sellers since the debut, and they bought about $405 million over the first five sessions after earnings, versus $103 million in the prior five sessions. A key near-term risk is that up to 912 million shares held by employees and other pre-IPO backers could become eligible to sell when the first major lockup expires, potentially doubling the public float, though expirations don’t force sales. SpaceX posted revenue and earnings that beat expectations, but its AI and data-center spending underscored expansion costs, which investors have treated as a down payment for future growth.