Meta’s AI Spending Could Pay Off If It Sells Compute

Meta Platforms is pursuing a SpaceX-like playbook, committing roughly $125–$145 billion in AI infrastructure through 2026 and signaling plans to monetize compute by selling cloud capacity to third parties, with anchor deals already in motion that could generate a sizable annual run rate. Even without AI revenue, Meta’s ad business produced about $201 billion in 2025 at a ~41% margin, underpinning the stock; however, ROI concerns linger given massive capex, Reality Labs losses, depreciation outpacing capex, and regulatory risks. A successful compute pivot could unlock upside through multiple expansion if anchor tenants materialize, while failure would leave the ad business as the core driver.