SpaceX Stock Hits New Highs Amid Debate Over Valuation and AI Spending

Key points

• SpaceX stock is trading near $171, approaching new closing highs after a volatile period since its Nasdaq debut.
• Starlink accounts for roughly 60% of SpaceX’s revenue and is the company’s only profitable segment, generating approximately $2.6 billion in EBITDA in the second quarter.
• Capital expenditures surged 309% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, reaching $28.5 billion, primarily for AI data centers and infrastructure.
• Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas suggests SpaceX is undervalued on a growth-adjusted basis, trading at 0.3 times the Big Tech median of 0.5 times.
• Critics, including The Motley Fool, argue that the high valuation and heavy spending make it unlikely for the stock to deliver 'millionaire-making' returns for new investors.

Background

SpaceX’s stock has experienced significant volatility since its IPO in July 2026, peaking near $225 and dropping to $105 before rebounding. Previous coverage noted that while Starlink revenue exceeds $4 billion and AI revenue is growing rapidly, the company faces scrutiny over its massive capital expenditures and unprofitable overall status. Some analysts, such as Scott Galloway, have previously warned of potential downside, while others point to Starship milestones and Starlink subscriber growth as bullish indicators.

How outlets are covering it

Outlets present contrasting views on SpaceX’s valuation. MarketWatch and Seeking Alpha highlight Morgan Stanley’s analysis, which suggests the stock is a bargain when growth is factored in, trading below the Big Tech median. Conversely, The Motley Fool argues that the stock is overvalued, citing the company’s heavy capital expenditures and lack of overall profitability as inhibitors to future gains. Yahoo Finance notes the stock’s momentum toward new highs but does not provide a specific valuation opinion. The divergence centers on whether Starlink’s growth and AI potential justify the current price, or if the spending spree poses a risk to shareholders.

Why it matters

SpaceX’s performance is a key indicator of investor sentiment toward high-growth, high-spending technology companies. The debate over its valuation reflects broader market concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven capital expenditures and the profitability of emerging technologies like satellite internet. As SpaceX approaches a $2.2 trillion market cap, its trajectory will influence investor confidence in similar tech ventures and the overall tech sector.

What to watch

Investors will watch SpaceX’s ability to convert its massive capital expenditures into revenue and profitability. Key metrics to monitor include Starlink subscriber growth, AI revenue contributions, and any changes in capital expenditure plans. The stock’s performance in the coming months will likely depend on whether the company can demonstrate a clear path to profitability while continuing to expand its Starlink and AI initiatives.