Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Fertilizer Shock and Food-Price Pressure

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid Iran’s war and disputed ceasefire has disrupted roughly half of fertilizer feedstock shipments, driving fertilizer prices up about 30–40% in the last month and threatening higher food prices or shortages as spring planting unfolds. Nitrogen fertilizer has climbed over 35% and phosphorus about 19%, and with the Haber‑Bosch process heavily dependent on LNG, cleaner alternatives aren’t online yet, so the shock could last months and affect crops through late summer and into 2027, potentially prompting farmers to cut fertilizer use or switch crops to cope.