Netflix’s 'La Bola Negra' Emerges as Top Contender to Beat 'The Odyssey' for Best Picture

Key points

• The film is currently the second-favorite for Best Picture, trailing only 'The Odyssey' in betting odds.
• It won the People’s Choice Award at the 2026 Toronto International Film Festival, a key precursor to Academy success.
• Netflix is committing to a 47-day theatrical run in North America, starting October 16, before streaming in December.
• The movie features a triple-timeline structure depicting the lives of gay men in Spain in 1932, 1937, and 2017.
• It is the first non-English-language film since 2011 to win the TIFF People’s Choice Award.

Background

Following its premiere at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival, where it received a 20-minute standing ovation and a shared best director prize, 'La Bola Negra' sparked a global bidding war. The film, directed by Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi (known as Los Javis), previously gained attention for their work on the HBO Max series 'Veneno' and as judges on 'Drag Race España.' Its recent victory at the Toronto International Film Festival solidified its status as a major awards contender, with industry observers noting its potential to rectify historical oversights in queer cinema, similar to the 2005 'Brokeback Mountain' controversy.

How outlets are covering it

Variety emphasizes the film’s potential to top 'The Odyssey' due to its ambitious scope and the strong performances of Guitarricadelafuente and Miguel Bernardeau, noting the directors’ deliberate casting of gay actors for gay roles. BBC highlights the film’s visual splendor and its ability to blend genres, comparing its aesthetic to 'The English Patient' and 'Titanite' despite a budget under $20 million. AP News frames the release as a strategic move by Netflix to finally secure a Best Picture win, contrasting it with previous Oscar-winning titles like 'Emilia Pérez.' CNN focuses on the competitive dynamic between 'La Bola Negra' and 'The Odyssey,' noting that while Nolan’s film is the current favorite, 'La Bola Negra' has generated significant industry buzz and critical acclaim.

Why it matters

A win for 'La Bola Negra' would mark a significant shift in the Academy Awards, potentially ending a long drought for non-English-language and queer-led films in the Best Picture category. It represents a major milestone for Netflix, which has won Oscars for other categories but has yet to secure the top prize. The film’s success could also signal a broader cultural acceptance of explicit queer narratives in mainstream cinema, moving beyond the subtlety of previous winners like 'Moonlight.'

What to watch

The film begins its US theatrical release on October 16, 2026. Following the theatrical run, it will stream on Netflix in December 2026. The Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 2027, where 'La Bola Negra' will compete against 'The Odyssey' and other contenders for the Best Picture statuette.