Osterholm Warns: Familiar Respiratory Ills and Measles Resurgence Outweigh Rare Disease Fears
CIDRAP Director Michael Osterholm identifies respiratory viruses, antibiotic resistance, and measles as the top public health threats, noting that familiar diseases cause more harm than rare ones. The 2025–26 flu season saw 81,000 deaths, while US measles cases hit 4,588, driven by falling vaccination rates. Osterholm also highlights chronic wasting disease, rubella, Ebola, and food safety as emerging risks, emphasizing that vaccine efficacy varies by disease but remains critical for preventing severe outcomes.
Key points
- Respiratory viruses (flu, COVID, RSV) caused significant mortality in 2025–26, with flu alone accounting for 81,000 deaths and 390,000 hospitalizations in the US.
- US measles cases reached 4,588 by late October 2026, the highest since 1991, with Pennsylvania accounting for nearly 30% of cases due to declining MMR vaccination rates.
- Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) causes 9.7 million infections annually in the US, a sharp rise from 2.8 million in 2019, complicating treatment and increasing mortality.
- Osterholm warns that chronic wasting disease (CWD) could jump to humans via venison, citing prion detection in skeletal muscle and parallels to mad cow disease.
- The CDC’s FoodNet surveillance program faced funding cuts, reducing required pathogen monitoring from eight to two, which experts argue weakens outbreak detection capabilities.
Background
Recent archive articles highlight broader public health trends, including a CDC report showing 71.5% of US adults experience fatigue, linked to stress and poor sleep, and a study finding that most flu patients abandon isolation before viral shedding peaks. These issues underscore the ongoing challenges in managing common respiratory illnesses and public adherence to health guidelines, which aligns with Osterholm’s emphasis on the underestimated threat of familiar diseases.
Why it matters
The data reveals a critical gap between public perception and actual health risks. While rare diseases like Ebola or CWD generate anxiety, common illnesses like flu and measles cause far greater mortality and morbidity. Declining vaccination rates and reduced surveillance funding exacerbate these threats, making proactive measures like vaccination and antibiotic stewardship essential to prevent severe outcomes and protect vulnerable populations.
What to watch
Public health officials are likely to intensify vaccination campaigns for flu, COVID, and RSV, and address measles outbreaks through targeted outreach. Efforts to combat AMR may include stricter antibiotic prescribing guidelines and public education on proper medication use. Additionally, there may be renewed focus on restoring FoodNet surveillance and monitoring CWD in wildlife to prevent potential human transmission.
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