A looming 'super El Niño' could push global temperatures toward new highs

Scientists warn that conditions in the Pacific Ocean could organize into a strong to ‘super’ El Niño this year, potentially driving global average temperatures above preindustrial levels by more than the 1.5°C threshold and possibly beyond 2°C. Forecasts show a 70% chance of El Niño by June and up to 94% probability it will persist through year’s end, with impacts that vary by region: intensified heat and drought in some areas, heavier rainfall in others, and shifts in tropical cyclone activity. While forecasts have uncertainty and natural variability, experts say the event could heighten extreme weather risk and underscore the urgency of preparing for a warmer world.