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NOAA projects below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
weather3 days ago

NOAA projects below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook calls for a below-average season, with fewer named storms and hurricanes than the long-term average. Forecasters point to expected atmospheric and oceanic conditions—such as increased wind shear and climate variability patterns tied to ENSO—that typically suppress development in the Atlantic. Even in a quieter season, residents should not become complacent: stay informed through official updates, review preparedness and evacuation plans, and monitor any storms that do form.

via Yahoo|
#atlantic#el-nino#hurricane
El Niño Boosts Expected Pacific Storm Surge for 2026
science3 days ago

El Niño Boosts Expected Pacific Storm Surge for 2026

NOAA projects an above-average 2026 Pacific hurricane season driven by developing El Niño, with the eastern Pacific seeing about 15–22 named storms, 9–14 hurricanes, and 5–9 major hurricanes (ACE near 120–190% of median; midpoint ~18.5 named storms, 11.5 hurricanes, 7 major). The central Pacific is expected to have 5–13 tropical cyclones. TSR forecasts an about 25% above-average Northwest Pacific typhoon season (27 tropical storms, 18 typhoons, 11 major typhoons, ACE ~410), also aided by El Niño. The warming pacific waters linked to El Niño typically boost activity in these regions, with historic benchmarks like 2015’s Patricia and 1997’s Linda cited; the season has already seen impactful activity from Super Typhoon Sinlaku, and current ACE levels remain well above average.

via Yale Climate Connections|
#el-nino#hurricane-season#noaa
NOAA expects a quieter 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, urges early preparedness
weather4 days ago

NOAA expects a quieter 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, urges early preparedness

NOAA’s 2026 outlook calls for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season (June 1–Nov 30) with 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes, aided by developing El Niño and warmer Atlantic conditions with weaker trade winds. Forecasters assign about a 55% chance of below-normal activity (35% near-normal, 10% above-normal) and highlight new tech—AI-based models, drones, enhanced forecast cones, and expanded products for Hawaii and inland areas—to improve forecasts, emphasizing that preparedness should begin now.

via NOAA (.gov)|
#atlantic-hurricane-season#el-nino#hurricane-forecast
El Niño May Dampen Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026, NOAA Forecasts
science4 days ago

El Niño May Dampen Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026, NOAA Forecasts

NOAA forecasts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, with a 55% chance of below-normal activity and 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes, largely due to a developing El Niño that increases upper-atmosphere wind shear even as sea temperatures remain warm. Forecasters caution that even in a quiet season, a single major hurricane can cause severe damage, and CSU's separate forecast also signals below-active activity. The season runs June 1 to November 30.

via BBC|
#atlantic-hurricane-season#el-nino#hurricane-forecast
El Niño reorders hurricane risk: calmer Atlantic, stormier Pacific
science5 days ago

El Niño reorders hurricane risk: calmer Atlantic, stormier Pacific

Forecasters expect a strong El Niño this summer (about 98% chance, with an 80% chance of moderate/strong), which tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through increased wind shear and dry air, leading to fewer Atlantic storms and lower US landfall risk, while boosting activity in the eastern/central Pacific. Historical data show Atlantic totals fall during El Niño years, whereas the Pacific often sees more storms; NOAA also projects an above-normal eastern Pacific season and a generally lower Atlantic season, with regional risks (e.g., Hawaii) varying by location and storm track.

via AP News|
#atlantic-hurricanes#el-nino#noaa-forecast
El Niño Could Quiet the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, NOAA Forecasts
weather5 days ago

El Niño Could Quiet the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, NOAA Forecasts

NOAA forecasts a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and up to 3 major hurricanes, driven largely by the anticipated return of El Niño which tends to increase upper-atmosphere wind shear and suppress activity, though warmer-than-normal Atlantic waters could still fuel systems. The season runs June 1–November 30, with the first tropical storm typically forming in late June and the first hurricane around mid-August.

via CNN|
#atlantic-hurricane-season#climate-patterns#el-nino
El Niño's Rise Could Fuel Pacific Hurricanes While Suppressing Atlantic Storms in 2026
science11 days ago

El Niño's Rise Could Fuel Pacific Hurricanes While Suppressing Atlantic Storms in 2026

A developing El Niño is expected to boost the Eastern Pacific hurricane season in 2026 due to warmer waters and reduced vertical wind shear, while the Atlantic may see fewer storms because of cooler waters and more wind shear, though activity won’t vanish. The East Pacific season begins May 15, with names Amanda, Boris, Cristina and Douglas, and forecasters will monitor outlooks; past events like 2023's Hilary and 2025's Kiko illustrate how El Niño and La Niña patterns influence storms.

via CBS News|
#atlantic-hurricane-activity#eastern-pacific#el-nino
California Faces a Potentially Powerful El Niño Winter
weather12 days ago

California Faces a Potentially Powerful El Niño Winter

Forecasters say there’s an 82% chance El Niño will emerge in the Pacific and a 96% chance it will be active this winter, with up to a 37% chance of a 'very strong' event. A powerful El Niño could bring a wetter, potentially flood-prone winter to Southern California, though outcomes are uncertain and influenced by ongoing marine heat waves and other atmospheric factors. Past strong El Niños caused floods and erosion, but not every event delivers the same rainfall, and California remains vulnerable to coastal and ecological impacts even if rainfall isn’t extreme.

via Los Angeles Times|
#california-weather#climate-prediction-center#el-nino
El Niño could become record-breaking as CPC raises odds
weather12 days ago

El Niño could become record-breaking as CPC raises odds

El Niño is developing faster than expected and forecasters say the odds are increasing that it could reach a historically strong, perhaps even 'Super', level by fall or winter. The Climate Prediction Center and NOAA project about a two-thirds chance that peak strength will be strong or very strong, aided by a large warm-water pool in the central and eastern Pacific. Regardless of whether it reaches super status, a stronger El Niño would likely boost global temperatures and influence weather worldwide—potentially stronger droughts or heat in some regions, and wetter winters and changes to hurricane activity in others—though there remains uncertainty about how strong the peak will be.

via CNN|
#climate-change#cpc#el-nino
India hosts all of Earth's hottest cities in a single day, a startling climate signal
climate15 days ago

India hosts all of Earth's hottest cities in a single day, a startling climate signal

On April 27, 2026, AQI data showed every one of the planet's top 50 hottest cities was in India, with average peak temperatures around 112.5°F and Banda reaching 115.16°F—the day's highest. Experts call this unprecedented clustering a stark sign of the climate crisis, noting hotter summers, earlier heat onset, risks to farming and health, and the potential for an El Niño to worsen upcoming monsoon conditions in 2026.

via CNN|
#climate#climate-crisis#el-nino
Massachusetts braces for a potential super El Niño and global climate ripple effects
weather18 days ago

Massachusetts braces for a potential super El Niño and global climate ripple effects

Forecasters expect a 'super' El Niño to form later this year, potentially one of the strongest on record, which could bring a milder, snow-light winter to Massachusetts, a quieter Atlantic hurricane season, and broader global shifts toward warmer temperatures, possibly making 2027 the warmest year on record as ocean warmth releases into the atmosphere.

via CBS News|
#el-nino#massachusetts#snowfall