Trump Rules Out Nuclear Strike on Iran but Confirms MOAB Plans

Key points

• Trump stated in a Newsmax interview that he would not use nuclear or tactical nuclear weapons, calling the MOAB 'not nuclear at all' and 'just an extremely large bomb.'
• CNN and CBS News report that the White House and Pentagon have developed strike plans involving the MOAB for Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites, particularly Pickaxe Mountain.
• Military officials doubt the MOAB's effectiveness against deeply buried targets like Pickaxe Mountain, which is fortified by granite, as the bomb is designed for surface-level blast effects.
• Trump suggested a new phase of the war is imminent, likely after the November 3 midterms, to avoid the appearance of defeat, while ruling out the deployment of ground troops.
• The US is currently enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran threatening to target oil and digital infrastructure in neighboring Gulf states in response to escalatory strikes.

Background

The US and Israel have been engaged in a war with Iran for over six months, involving intermittent strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites. The conflict has been deeply unpopular among Americans, with Republicans facing potential political backlash in the upcoming midterm elections. Trump has previously made extreme threats against Iran, including warnings that 'a whole civilisation will die' if Tehran did not agree to a peace deal, which experts interpreted as nuclear threats. The US has also been involved in a naval blockade of Iranian ports and has faced challenges in securing a diplomatic resolution. The MOAB was previously used by Trump in 2017 against ISIS in Afghanistan.

How outlets are covering it

Al Jazeera emphasizes Trump's explicit ruling out of nuclear weapons and the potential for a new phase of the war after the midterms. CNN highlights the internal military planning for MOAB strikes, noting doubts about its effectiveness against deeply buried targets and the political pressure on Trump to find a 'symbolic' win. CBS News focuses on the White House and Pentagon's preparation of strike plans and the ongoing blockade of Iranian ports, while noting Trump's previous threats to 'annihilate' Iran. All sources agree on the MOAB's non-nuclear nature and the likelihood of further strikes, but differ on the emphasis: Al Jazeera on the nuclear question, CNN on the strategic and political implications, and CBS on the operational planning and blockade.

Why it matters

Trump's ruling out of nuclear weapons reduces the immediate risk of a nuclear exchange, but the potential use of the MOAB signals a significant escalation in conventional warfare. The timing of potential strikes, linked to the midterm elections, suggests a political motivation behind military decisions. The effectiveness of the MOAB against deeply buried targets is questionable, raising doubts about the strategic goals of the US. The ongoing blockade and threats from Iran could lead to further regional instability and impact global oil prices.

What to watch

The US may launch another intensive bombing campaign targeting Iranian nuclear and defence sites, particularly Pickaxe Mountain, potentially after the November 3 midterms. The US could continue its naval blockade on Iranian ports and provide escorts for commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has vowed to respond to escalatory strikes by targeting oil and digital infrastructure in neighboring Gulf states. Trump has ruled out ground troops, but the US military is preparing for potential Iranian retaliation.