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Ukraine Leads Europe in Defense Spending as GDP Share Surges
11 hours ago•Source: Visual Capitalist
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6.54 min•2 days ago
Hormuz Strait: Renewed US-Iran Clash Over Maritime Control
Core to the renewed US-Iran conflict is control over the Strait of Hormuz and how the MoU to keep it open should be implemented. Iran argues navigation should be coordinated with Tehran and could entail tolls, while the US seeks uninterrupted passage through international routes. Despite the truce, ship attacks and retaliatory strikes persist, underscoring the MoU's ambiguous language and competing interpretations. Both sides face domestic pressures that could prevent a full-scale war, but the risk of a longer confrontation remains.
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Europe Deterrence at Risk as NATO presses for US troop-reduction timetable
NATO allies want a coordinated US plan for troop reductions in Europe to avoid deterrence gaps with Russia. Estonia’s foreign minister urged clearer, joint timelines ahead of a NATO meeting with Marco Rubio, amid recent US moves to cancel a 4,000-strong Poland rotation and cut 5,000 German troops, plus scrapping a battalion equipped with ground-launched Tomahawk missiles. European officials fear capability gaps and question the lack of details; Estonia may seek alternative weapons suppliers if needed, and delays to HIMARS deliveries underscore the uncertainty. A NATO summit in July could reveal the US posture, but officials say there is no guaranteed timetable yet.
China’s Window to Shape a Post-Trump World Slips
Shambaugh and Jackson argue that Trump’s 2025 return has created a global strategic vacuum for Beijing to fill, but China’s gains remain uneven across regions. It commands broad diplomatic reach and massive economic leverage, yet lacks durable alliances and a universally appealing model, leaving many countries hedging their bets between Washington and Beijing. Europe remains wary, Africa and Latin America show both opportunity and pushback over neocolonial perceptions, and Southeast Asia is cautious despite strong trade ties. Even with a potential Xi–Trump summit, a decisive shift in global power is unlikely; the world looks more multipolar and characterized by hedging than a clean U.S.–China bipolar order.
Iran blamed for missile and drone attack on Fujairah, elevating Gulf tensions
UAE officials say Iran launched a barrage of 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles and 4 drones at Fujairah, injuring three Indian nationals and setting an oil refinery ablaze, with UAE air defences claiming to have engaged the attacks. Iran’s state TV blamed US adventurism, while Fujairah’s strategic Habshan–Fujairah pipeline and its role as an oil hub amplify the incident’s significance amid broader Gulf tensions and the disputed Strait of Hormuz, where the US has pledged to escort ships. India condemned the attack.
Iran's Oil System Poised to Weather Shutdowns, but Gas Output Faces Greater Risk
The Center on Global Energy Policy argues that Iran’s oil sector can likely weather production shut-ins caused by the U.S. blockade, with potential cuts up to about half of pre-war output to avoid full storage, and a relatively quick recovery to around 70% of capacity if the blockade eases. However, gas fields are at greater risk due to lack of outlets for associated hydrocarbons, requiring rationing among exports, power, industry, and domestic use, and long-run capacity could erode from sanctions and financing/tech constraints. The analysis covers key Iranian oil regions (Khuzestan, West Karoun, offshore fields) and the giant South Pars gas field, noting that while oil restarts are typically feasible, gas output faces tighter constraints that could limit overall capacity over time.
Endgame Logic Makes Iran's Ceasefire Plausible
Gideon Rose argues that after a costly U.S.–Iran war, both sides face costly escalations and prefer a draw, making the ceasefire likely to endure. Using the ‘dollar auction’ metaphor, he explains why Washington and Tehran backed away from total war and outlines how Pakistan talks could yield a pragmatic mix of sanctions relief, modest restraints on Iran’s nuclear program, and revised Hormuz shipping terms. Israel and regional tensions will complicate matters, but the core dynamic suggests a durable endgame rather than a decisive victory for either side—at least for now.
Iran’s Long Game: Outsmarting the West in the Gulf
Iran has spent decades building an asymmetric, decentralized military and an economic strategy to disrupt energy markets and strain the U.S.-led Gulf security order. By leveraging the IRGC, proxies, and strategic vulnerabilities like the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran aims to outlast adversaries and widen gaps between Washington and Gulf partners, potentially leaving Iran resilient and the U.S.-Gulf alliance weakened after the conflict.
Denmark plotted Greenland contingency to deter a US invasion
Denmark reportedly prepared contingency measures in Greenland in January amid U.S. threats to seize the Arctic island, including explosives to destroy Nuuk and Kangerlussuaq runways and blood supplies for troops; the plan, backed by France and Germany, was intended to raise the costs of any takeover. The crisis was defused through NATO mediation by Mark Rutte, and Denmark says talks with the United States are ongoing on a sovereignty-respecting compromise.
China’s cool calculus in Iran: economic heft, political restraint
China’s Iran policy blends economic leverage with political caution: Beijing’s state media reported the latest strikes plainly, while weeks earlier it largely muted Iran’s protests and framed them as the handiwork of external forces, illustrating that Beijing remains a relatively weak political actor in the Middle East but wields influence through its economic ties rather than overt diplomacy.
Trump’s Iran Gambit Risks a Pandora’s Box in the Gulf
Ali Vaez argues that the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, dubbed Epic Fury, move from limited, tactical actions to a broad, open-ended confrontation with no clear objective or exit, risking a Pandora’s box of escalation in the Gulf as Iran vows retaliation and relies on missiles and its regional network; while domestic protests complicate Tehran’s calculations, Washington’s mix of sanctions, diplomacy, and support for protesters offers no straightforward path to de-escalation, making a protracted, region-wide conflict increasingly plausible and politically costly for Trump.
Putin's Limits: Russia's Power in an Anarchic World
The piece argues that Russia’s hard power proved insufficient to project influence beyond Ukraine after 2014 and especially since 2022; Moscow has pivoted toward China and regional partners, but European and American resolve has limited its diplomacy and constrained its ability to shape events abroad. While Putin may escalate to press Kyiv or widen the war, Moscow’s global clout remains waning, and its future depends on Western unity and the unpredictable dynamics of Trump’s foreign-policy era.