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Europe Deterrence at Risk as NATO presses for US troop-reduction timetable
6 days ago•Source: Financial Times
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China’s Window to Shape a Post-Trump World Slips
Shambaugh and Jackson argue that Trump’s 2025 return has created a global strategic vacuum for Beijing to fill, but China’s gains remain uneven across regions. It commands broad diplomatic reach and massive economic leverage, yet lacks durable alliances and a universally appealing model, leaving many countries hedging their bets between Washington and Beijing. Europe remains wary, Africa and Latin America show both opportunity and pushback over neocolonial perceptions, and Southeast Asia is cautious despite strong trade ties. Even with a potential Xi–Trump summit, a decisive shift in global power is unlikely; the world looks more multipolar and characterized by hedging than a clean U.S.–China bipolar order.
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Iran’s Long Game: Outsmarting the West in the Gulf
Iran has spent decades building an asymmetric, decentralized military and an economic strategy to disrupt energy markets and strain the U.S.-led Gulf security order. By leveraging the IRGC, proxies, and strategic vulnerabilities like the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran aims to outlast adversaries and widen gaps between Washington and Gulf partners, potentially leaving Iran resilient and the U.S.-Gulf alliance weakened after the conflict.
Denmark plotted Greenland contingency to deter a US invasion
Denmark reportedly prepared contingency measures in Greenland in January amid U.S. threats to seize the Arctic island, including explosives to destroy Nuuk and Kangerlussuaq runways and blood supplies for troops; the plan, backed by France and Germany, was intended to raise the costs of any takeover. The crisis was defused through NATO mediation by Mark Rutte, and Denmark says talks with the United States are ongoing on a sovereignty-respecting compromise.
China’s cool calculus in Iran: economic heft, political restraint
China’s Iran policy blends economic leverage with political caution: Beijing’s state media reported the latest strikes plainly, while weeks earlier it largely muted Iran’s protests and framed them as the handiwork of external forces, illustrating that Beijing remains a relatively weak political actor in the Middle East but wields influence through its economic ties rather than overt diplomacy.
Trump’s Iran Gambit Risks a Pandora’s Box in the Gulf
Ali Vaez argues that the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, dubbed Epic Fury, move from limited, tactical actions to a broad, open-ended confrontation with no clear objective or exit, risking a Pandora’s box of escalation in the Gulf as Iran vows retaliation and relies on missiles and its regional network; while domestic protests complicate Tehran’s calculations, Washington’s mix of sanctions, diplomacy, and support for protesters offers no straightforward path to de-escalation, making a protracted, region-wide conflict increasingly plausible and politically costly for Trump.
Putin's Limits: Russia's Power in an Anarchic World
The piece argues that Russia’s hard power proved insufficient to project influence beyond Ukraine after 2014 and especially since 2022; Moscow has pivoted toward China and regional partners, but European and American resolve has limited its diplomacy and constrained its ability to shape events abroad. While Putin may escalate to press Kyiv or widen the war, Moscow’s global clout remains waning, and its future depends on Western unity and the unpredictable dynamics of Trump’s foreign-policy era.
Border Brinkmanship: Afghanistan and Pakistan on the Verge of Conflict
Analysts warn that Afghanistan’s Taliban regime sheltering the TTP and Pakistan’s hardening stance could spark cross-border clashes, with airstrikes, local offensives, and stalled mediation pushing South Asia toward broader conflict. Despite mediation attempts by Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia—and calls for de-escalation from China—no durable agreement to curb the TTP has emerged, raising the risk of mass displacement, regional instability, and potential spillovers to global security.
Iran's Defenses Weakened, but Retaliation Remains a Threat
The U.S. signals possible military action against Iran and has deployed major assets to the Middle East, while Tehran’s air defenses are weakened yet it still commands thousands of short- and medium-range missiles, cruise missiles, and drones capable of striking U.S. bases, ships, and regional targets. Iran could disrupt oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, risking global energy shocks. Experts warn that a limited air campaign would degrade Iran but not topple its regime, and escalation could be broad and unpredictable.
Russia’s Global Patronage Fails to Deliver, Maduro Exposed
Foreign Affairs argues that Vladimir Putin’s Russia has overpromised and underdelivered as a global patron, backing allies like Venezuela and Syria in rhetoric more than in action. Moscow’s resources are stretched by the Ukraine war, leaving Maduro without timely warning or adequate defense, and turning decades of partnership into a largely transactional relationship that provides few security or economic benefits. The piece contends Russia is a limited player that can act as a spoiler but cannot meaningfully counter the United States in far‑flung theaters.
Rule of Law in Peril: Trump, Venezuela, and the End of the Postwar Order
Oona A. Hathaway and Scott J. Shapiro warn that Trump’s presidency has attacked the postwar international legal order by undermining universal norms, sanctioning international courts, breaching trade and UN obligations, and endorsing unilateral force. They point to the Venezuela operation that kidnapped Maduro as a stark example of how legal constraints are being discarded. If this trend continues, the world risks a ruleless order where power—not law—defines rights, leading to greater instability and conflict.
Trump's Latin America Strategy and Its Global Implications
The US is escalating its military presence in the Caribbean, including threats to bomb Venezuela and efforts to overthrow Nicolás Maduro, amid ongoing operations against alleged drug traffickers, reflecting a shift towards a more aggressive 'Americas First' doctrine under President Trump.