geopolitics5.585 min read
Trump’s Korea pivot exposes Japan’s lack of a Plan B
5 days ago•Source: Financial Times
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17.705 min•21 days ago
Iran-Led Axis Rebuilt Into a Global Drone Web
Despite US-Israeli strikes, the axis of resistance has reconstituted itself as a diffuse, self-reproducing web rather than a centralized command. The IRGC now arms and trains Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi militias, while proxies increasingly manufacture drones and missiles from global supply chains—often using Chinese parts and shadow shipping networks that dodge sanctions. The result is a resilient network capable of striking Gulf infrastructure and Western targets despite setbacks in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon. Washington cannot rely on coercive force alone and should pursue a hybrid strategy: disrupt axis commercial and financial networks, seek regional political settlements with established groups, engage in diplomacy with Iran, and push multilateral efforts to track dual-use components. Total victory is unlikely; containment through pressure and diplomacy offers the best path to limit the threat.
11.225 min•1 month ago
Ukraine Leads Europe in Defense Spending as GDP Share Surges
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Hormuz Strait: Renewed US-Iran Clash Over Maritime Control
Al Jazeera•1 month ago
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Southern Routes Erode Hormuz Leverage as Iran Targets Shipping
Fox News•1 month ago
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Europe Rises: Building Its Own Security
A Foreign Affairs analysis argues Europe is moving from a Washington-centric grand strategy to an autonomous security posture: major increases in defense spending led by Germany, the revival of conscription in several countries, and a push to reduce dependence on U.S. equipment by boosting European defense industry and deeper Franco-German defense cooperation. The continent seeks a new security architecture that preserves NATO while taking greater responsibility for its own defense amid heightened Russian threats and questions about lasting U.S. reliability, all while navigating Eurosceptic politics that could complicate deeper integration.
Quad widens its Indo-Pacific playbook to ports, cables, and minerals
At a New Delhi meeting, Quad members announced infrastructure and connectivity initiatives—such as a Fiji port project, maritime surveillance, and critical mineral partnerships—while linking these efforts to India’s Great Nicobar development. The move signals a shift from pure deterrence to economic security and resilience of sea lanes, reflecting how infrastructure and digital connectivity are increasingly central to strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific.
Europe Deterrence at Risk as NATO presses for US troop-reduction timetable
NATO allies want a coordinated US plan for troop reductions in Europe to avoid deterrence gaps with Russia. Estonia’s foreign minister urged clearer, joint timelines ahead of a NATO meeting with Marco Rubio, amid recent US moves to cancel a 4,000-strong Poland rotation and cut 5,000 German troops, plus scrapping a battalion equipped with ground-launched Tomahawk missiles. European officials fear capability gaps and question the lack of details; Estonia may seek alternative weapons suppliers if needed, and delays to HIMARS deliveries underscore the uncertainty. A NATO summit in July could reveal the US posture, but officials say there is no guaranteed timetable yet.
China’s Window to Shape a Post-Trump World Slips
Shambaugh and Jackson argue that Trump’s 2025 return has created a global strategic vacuum for Beijing to fill, but China’s gains remain uneven across regions. It commands broad diplomatic reach and massive economic leverage, yet lacks durable alliances and a universally appealing model, leaving many countries hedging their bets between Washington and Beijing. Europe remains wary, Africa and Latin America show both opportunity and pushback over neocolonial perceptions, and Southeast Asia is cautious despite strong trade ties. Even with a potential Xi–Trump summit, a decisive shift in global power is unlikely; the world looks more multipolar and characterized by hedging than a clean U.S.–China bipolar order.
Iran blamed for missile and drone attack on Fujairah, elevating Gulf tensions
UAE officials say Iran launched a barrage of 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles and 4 drones at Fujairah, injuring three Indian nationals and setting an oil refinery ablaze, with UAE air defences claiming to have engaged the attacks. Iran’s state TV blamed US adventurism, while Fujairah’s strategic Habshan–Fujairah pipeline and its role as an oil hub amplify the incident’s significance amid broader Gulf tensions and the disputed Strait of Hormuz, where the US has pledged to escort ships. India condemned the attack.
Iran's Oil System Poised to Weather Shutdowns, but Gas Output Faces Greater Risk
The Center on Global Energy Policy argues that Iran’s oil sector can likely weather production shut-ins caused by the U.S. blockade, with potential cuts up to about half of pre-war output to avoid full storage, and a relatively quick recovery to around 70% of capacity if the blockade eases. However, gas fields are at greater risk due to lack of outlets for associated hydrocarbons, requiring rationing among exports, power, industry, and domestic use, and long-run capacity could erode from sanctions and financing/tech constraints. The analysis covers key Iranian oil regions (Khuzestan, West Karoun, offshore fields) and the giant South Pars gas field, noting that while oil restarts are typically feasible, gas output faces tighter constraints that could limit overall capacity over time.
Endgame Logic Makes Iran's Ceasefire Plausible
Gideon Rose argues that after a costly U.S.–Iran war, both sides face costly escalations and prefer a draw, making the ceasefire likely to endure. Using the ‘dollar auction’ metaphor, he explains why Washington and Tehran backed away from total war and outlines how Pakistan talks could yield a pragmatic mix of sanctions relief, modest restraints on Iran’s nuclear program, and revised Hormuz shipping terms. Israel and regional tensions will complicate matters, but the core dynamic suggests a durable endgame rather than a decisive victory for either side—at least for now.
Iran’s Long Game: Outsmarting the West in the Gulf
Iran has spent decades building an asymmetric, decentralized military and an economic strategy to disrupt energy markets and strain the U.S.-led Gulf security order. By leveraging the IRGC, proxies, and strategic vulnerabilities like the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran aims to outlast adversaries and widen gaps between Washington and Gulf partners, potentially leaving Iran resilient and the U.S.-Gulf alliance weakened after the conflict.
Denmark plotted Greenland contingency to deter a US invasion
Denmark reportedly prepared contingency measures in Greenland in January amid U.S. threats to seize the Arctic island, including explosives to destroy Nuuk and Kangerlussuaq runways and blood supplies for troops; the plan, backed by France and Germany, was intended to raise the costs of any takeover. The crisis was defused through NATO mediation by Mark Rutte, and Denmark says talks with the United States are ongoing on a sovereignty-respecting compromise.
China’s cool calculus in Iran: economic heft, political restraint
China’s Iran policy blends economic leverage with political caution: Beijing’s state media reported the latest strikes plainly, while weeks earlier it largely muted Iran’s protests and framed them as the handiwork of external forces, illustrating that Beijing remains a relatively weak political actor in the Middle East but wields influence through its economic ties rather than overt diplomacy.