Gallup-Kettering Survey: Americans' Trust in Rule of Law and Democratic Institutions Hits New Lows

Key points

• 56% of Americans say the rule of law is weaker now than in 2016, compared to just 14% who say it is stronger.
• 53% doubt that political leaders will be held accountable to the nation's laws and Constitution, up from 48% in 2025.
• 59% believe the executive branch has too much power, far exceeding concerns about the judicial (38%) or legislative (34%) branches.
• 60% say equal treatment under the law is working poorly, up from 55% a year ago.
• 68% of adults say speaking up against injustice is a more important civic duty than respecting authority.
• 42% of Republicans aged 65+ now believe it is reasonable to assume election officials acted improperly when outcomes are surprising, up from 30% a year ago.

Background

This survey arrives amid a broader 2026 political climate marked by declining trust in institutions and heightened partisan polarization. Recent developments, including a Ninth Circuit ruling blocking a Justice Department appointment in Nevada and a Joint Chiefs statement against deploying military to polling places, underscore ongoing tensions over the rule of law and election integrity. Additionally, Trump's second-term approval ratings have plunged, with independents showing a 47-point disapproval gap, reflecting the same erosion of confidence captured in this poll. The 2026 midterms are now shadowed by widespread voter dissatisfaction and debates over electoral reform, with Republicans pushing for stricter voter ID laws while Democrats advocate for expanded access.

How outlets are covering it

Axios emphasizes the generational and partisan shift in trust, highlighting that older Republicans are significantly less trusting of election officials than a year ago, and that the top suggested fix for democracy is replacing incumbents. Gallup News focuses on the structural erosion of democratic guardrails, noting that 53% doubt leadership accountability and 59% view the executive branch as too powerful, with Republicans showing the largest year-over-year decline in trust. The Kettering Foundation frames the findings as a 'tale of two democracies,' noting that while national confidence has plummeted, 34% of Americans still rate local democracy as performing well, suggesting community-level engagement may buffer against national pessimism. Democracy Docket stresses the partisan divergence in proposed solutions, noting that Republicans primarily advocate for stricter voting restrictions (like photo ID laws), while Democrats focus on changing leadership and expanding access, and links the rising distrust of election officials to Trump's continued promotion of false claims about the 2020 election.

Why it matters

The data signals a critical inflection point for U.S. democracy ahead of the 2026 midterms. The sharp rise in skepticism about accountability, equal treatment under the law, and the balance of power suggests that democratic guardrails are no longer seen as functioning by a majority of the public. This erosion of trust, particularly among Republicans and independents, could reshape the political landscape, making voters more receptive to both radical change and restrictive reforms. The fact that 68% prioritize speaking up over respecting authority indicates a potential surge in civic activism, but also a risk of deepening polarization if institutions fail to restore confidence. As the country marks its 250th anniversary, the gap between democratic ideals and lived experience is widening, with 60% believing democracy was stronger 50 years ago and 45% expecting it to weaken over the next 50 years. This could pressure candidates to center institutional reform and accountability in their platforms, or risk further alienation if they ignore the public's demand for change.

What to watch

The 2026 midterm elections will likely be defined by the issues highlighted in this survey, with candidates expected to address accountability, electoral reform, and the balance of power. Republicans may push for stricter voter ID laws and gerrymandering, while Democrats will likely focus on expanding voting access and replacing incumbents. The rising distrust of election officials, particularly among older Republicans, could lead to increased challenges to election results and heightened scrutiny of voting procedures. Additionally, the public's preference for speaking up over respecting authority may translate into greater civic engagement, protests, or grassroots organizing. The Kettering Foundation and Gallup will continue to track these trends in future reports, with a focus on whether local optimism can translate into national confidence. The coming months will also see debates over the SAVE America Act and other voting restrictions, as well as potential legal challenges to executive overreach, as the public's demand for accountability intensifies.