Rubio warns Venezuela’s transition cannot be derailed by street protests

Key points

• Rubio stated that Venezuela’s democratic transition depends on institutional changes, not street protests, and warned against attempts to derail the process.
• The US administration requires three key reforms before elections: a new Supreme Court by year’s end, a new National Electoral Council by early next year, and resolution of Venezuela’s $300 billion sovereign debt.
• Machada demands elections in 2027, while US officials have not set a specific date, suggesting elections could occur in 2027 or 2028 depending on reform progress.
• Rubio confirmed that the Trump administration will not allow the interim government to stall the process until the administration ends in January 2029.
• A senior State Department official highlighted the need to reform security services to prevent instability, warning that unloyal forces could turn Caracas into a 'murder capital' if the system fails.

Background

Machada returned to Venezuela on October 25 after ten months in exile, arriving to massive public support. Her return complicated the US-backed transition led by acting President Delcy Rodríguez, as Washington prioritized economic stabilization and oil deals over immediate democratic elections. The Trump administration had previously discussed these reform issues with Rodríguez, emphasizing that elections must happen but without a fixed date.

Why it matters

Rubio’s warning signals that the US administration is prioritizing institutional stability and economic recovery over immediate electoral timelines. By linking democratic transition to specific reforms and debt resolution, Washington aims to ensure that any new government is viable and not undermined by economic collapse or security failures. This approach risks alienating opposition figures like Machado, who view the delay as a setback for democratic norms, but it aligns with the administration’s goal of securing long-term stability in the region.

What to watch

The US will monitor whether the interim government meets the agreed timelines for reforming the Supreme Court and Electoral Council. Rubio indicated he intends to remain in his role until the end of the Trump administration in January 2029 to ensure the process is completed. If the government stalls, the administration may escalate pressure, though no specific sanctions or actions were detailed. The next critical milestone is the establishment of a new Supreme Court by year’s end.